COP21: A Hostage Situation

by Laughlin Artz

Editor, Context News

Having now attended both the June and September UNFCCC Climate Change Conferences in Bonn, I can now with absolute certainly report:

COP21 is a hostage situation.

Here is how it plays out.  Every conference attendee I have spoken with, which includes delegates, United Nations representatives and government officials, when posed the question, “Do you agree that what we really need to accomplish in Paris is an agreement that ensures that we will not surpass the critical limit of 1.5 degrees C warming above pre-industrial level?”, the response I got to a person was “Yes.”  To those same people, when I then asked “Is that the agreement we are going to get?” the answer was an equally resounding “No.”  

As someone witnessing this first-hand, in actual conversation with the key players in the COP21 proceedings, it seemed completely bizarre.  To find myself in the midst of a situation where everyone agrees what we need and everyone also agrees we won’t get it.  There are plenty of explanations available for why this is the case, and plenty offered by conference participants; however none of them actually get to the heart of the matter. 

It is only when you delve into the contextual underpinnings of the environment in which this is all happening that you can begin to get a glimpse of the logic and the design shaping the ways in which these people are thinking, being, and acting.  At that level, the contextual level, there is no mystery; it becomes very clear that it is all going according to plan.  The issue is that no one is copping to the plan.

Where this came into stark illumination was on Day 3 of the conference.  On that afternoon, there was an “emergency” meeting called to address a severe lack of progress in the negotiations.  It was labeled a “stocktaking” meeting, a meeting with a stated intention of taking stock of the current rate of progress, and determining a path forward that would increase the rate of progress.  Having witnessed first-hand several of the negotiation sessions, the lack of progress was no mystery to me, and I was interested to see how the lack of progress would be addressed in this emergency meeting. 

What got voiced in the meeting was complaint after complaint about the lack of progress and opinion after opinion as to who or what was to blame.   Had I had the opportunity to speak, I would have asked the question that no one was asking, and that wasn’t even on anyone’s radar to ask.  It was the question that could at least begin to address the elephant in the room that no one could see.  That question being: “Who here is accountable for progress?”  Or more specifically, in the matter of the progress objective declared by the co-chairs at the conference opening, “Whose job is it to ensure that the document progresses by the end of this conference from a compilation of positions to a basis of negotiation?”  

Had that question been asked, and had the truth been told, the answer would have been “no one.”  What would have been said, and I know this as a function of having asked the question “Who is accountable for progress?”  of a wide sampling of conference participants is “we all are.”  Which is simply another way of saying “no one.”   In any situation, if “everyone” is accountable, then no “one” is accountable.

This is not to say that there are not people who have been tasked with aspects of the process.  It is however to say that what it is to be accountable as a concept is very different from being accountable in action.  This environment is one that not only doesn't pull for accountability in action, but actually argues against it.  What is argued for is reasons and explanations, not accountability.  They are two distinct worlds.

So there I am in a room full of the people who have been selected to craft what could be said to be one of the most important agreements of our time, it is clear to everyone that the rate of progress in crafting that agreement is dramatically insufficient for completing the agreement by December, everyone is complaining about the lack of progress, and there is no one in the room who holds him or herself accountable for the on-time completion of the agreement.  That is the actuality of the situation, and as such, that there is a lack of progress is far from surprising, and to think that anything will come from this meeting that will make any significant impact in progress is to be truly delusional and not operating in reality.  The person who could make that difference, the only person who could make that difference, the person accountable, isn’t even in the room. 

This is in no way intended to negate or diminish the commitment of the parties involved in this proceeding, or to lay fault or blame on anyone.  This is only intended to shine a light on the nature of the environment in which the proceedings are occurring, and the impact of that nature on both the rate of progress and the power (or lack thereof) of the participants to impact the situation.

What we have in the absence of an environment of real accountability in these negotiations is an environment of “everyone doing their best given the seemingly inherent constraints of the situation.”  What is shaping the thinking and acting and thereby determining the rate of progress isn’t any real commitment to progress, and more specifically to a specific rate of progress, but rather the “reality” in which the co-chairs, delegates and facilitators “find” themselves at work.

To get a glimpse of this “reality” you only need to listen to the language of the conference.  The “why’s” and “who’s” that are assigned as the culprits in the lack of progress.  Statements like “these are political discussions and as such cannot be pushed, cannot move any faster” or “our job is to bring the countries to the table, but given the complexity of the parties involved, we cannot make them commit to anything”, or “governments X,Y and Z do not move any faster than this” or “this is how things move at this stage of the negotiations and it always goes this way.”

What you hear is multiple expressions of the same thing – “Our hands are tied, and we are doing the absolute best that anyone could do given the constraints in which we are given to operate.”  These constraints,  the "reasons”, "explanations" and “because’s” that the participants relate to as “real” are what is holding the conference hostage, and are what is thwarting any possibility of generating an agreement in Paris that would ensure for our people and our planet a future of sustainability.

These people are held hostage not as a function of the constraints they talk about; they are held hostage by the illusion that those constraints are “real.”  They are victims of a condition, a condition of "reasons and explanations", a condition they have no real choice in the matter of, a condition they don't even see.  

In response to this lack of progress, this crisis of accountability, I have submitted to the co-chair of the conference, in partnership with a colleague at UNFCCC, a proposal to work with the co-chair and facilitators in generating an environment of accountability for the upcoming Bonn negotiations.  

It will be interesting to see the response.  However it goes, at least for my own integrity, I no longer have to bear witness to the insanity of the situation without having at least offered what I propose could make a real difference.

"Who Will Step Up?"

by Laughlin Artz

Editor, Context News

As I prepare to attend the next round of UNFCCC climate change negotiations in Bonn, one question is there for me above the rest:  “Who Will Step Up?”  

Not “Who will step up to work on climate change?” - the conference will be full of those individuals.  Not “Who will step up to debate the best (or at least most economically and politically expedient) strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation?” - there will be plenty of power-point presentations about that.  No, the specific who in the “Who will step up?” I am speaking of is the voice that has not been heard, the voice that has to date been silent - that distinct and unmistakable voice that belongs to the who of

          “Who will step up to take the lead to end global warming?” 

Now, if you’re like most people who I've had this conversation with, and there have been many, and most of them highly-leveraged individuals in the game of climate change mitigation, you would say “Well, isn’t that what we’re already doing?”  And the answer is a resounding “No”. 

We are not ending global warming.  We are at work on doing what we can to end global warming.  We are weighing the pros and cons of potential strategies and selecting those that seem most potent and achievable.  We are debating just how dire the situation really is, and conducting lots of studies as to its effects, both short and long term.  And as for the folks coming together in Bonn, we are negotiating an agreement that will demonstrate to the world that some kind of consensus has been reached in addressing the crisis; an agreement that everyone, including the co-chairs of COP21 agrees will call for action that falls far short of what is required to avert catastrophic and irreversible damage to our planet. 

 

So yes, we are doing all that, and more, and no, WE ARE NOT ENDING GLOBAL WARMING.  

It is completely understandable that no one has taken up that calling; that no one has picked up that gauntlet, stood fast and said “We are ending global warming."  It takes something to promise something, it takes something truly extraordinary to take a stand for something, to fully commit to something that is real and exact and tangible, especially in a situation as complex as the crisis of global warming.  That kind of action, that order of commitment, is very distinct from what it takes to work on something, to be interested in something, to get behind something, to join something, to do one's part in something, to be for something, to follow something, to agree with something, etc. 

To promise something, anything that is unpredictable in its realization takes courage and a both-eyes-open willingness to confront and deal with the unpredictable and the uncertain.  Working in the realm of an unreasonable promise is a highly-specialized way of thinking and acting that isn’t easy, comfortable, or popular.  

Just look at our own everyday aversion to making a concrete promise about something that we don’t have certainty about, that the current circumstances argue against.  To avoid that discomfort zone that a real promise throws us into, we stay in the safety zone of “trying”, “doing our best”, “giving it everything we have”, “doing everything we know to do”, etc.  The upside of this safe and predictable way of working is that it eliminates the possibility of failing.  After all, if you promise to do your best, who can come back and say, "Hey, you didn’t!"?  The down side, and in the situation of climate change, the down side has real and catastrophic consequences, is that the actions and corresponding results required to end the crisis, don’t happen.  And they don’t because the actions required live beyond the world of the predictable, beyond the world of reason.

  “People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are.  
     I don’t believe in circumstances.  The people who get on in this                 world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances  
           they want, and, if they can’t find them, make them.”

                                                                    - George Bernard Shaw

This is in no way meant to pass judgement on which way of working is better than the other.  Only to illustrate that they are fundamentally distinct, and that absent the authentic promise to end global warming, the world that that promise calls forth will remain unavailable.  And that world is the world in which global warming can be ended.

That’s the whole power of a promise.  It calls forth a new reality of thought and action, a new environment for a whole new order of planning, strategies and results.  It catapults one into a new and unknown dimension of thinking, planning and action.  And you can’t work hard enough in the existing reality of reason and logic to get into the reality of the unreasonable.  

We have taken and are continuing to take the actions that are there for us to take in the current reality, a reality based in what we know, where we’ve been and what we can see for the future.  There is nothing wrong with that reality; it is simply that that reality is insufficient in addressing and solving the crisis.  What is being called for is a new reality.

And make no mistake about it, it takes courage, real courage to take that kind of stand, to make that kind of promise.  The promise puts the promiser into a whole new world, a world that is not recognizable from the existing reality, and it puts her or him at risk in that world - the world in which the gap between what can currently be seen and what is necessary to be seen for the fulfillment of the promise can start to emerge.  With the promiser at risk as the one who is stepping in to open up and begin to explore that uncharted territory.

  

Be clear that this is not intended in any way to diminish the amazing work that has been done and is being done to address climate change.  That work is vital and necessary, and much of it quite innovative.  In fact, without all of that work and the progress that has resulted from that work, there would not be the necessary grounding in reality to give the promise to end global warming any real credibility.  Otherwise the promise would be some kind of fantasy, a pipe dream.  That is no longer the case.  There now exists enough scientific evidence and we have witnessed enough technological advances in the area to back up the stand to end global warming.  And the stand won’t come from the evidence.  It will come from the stand itself.

The ending of the global warming crisis will not come from the experts or scientists or politicians, at least not from those that stay within the confines of the frameworks of thought in which they have been raised and trained.  It will come from thoughtful radicals.  Not thoughtful as in the thoughts that already exist, but thoughtful as a new dimension of thought that comes from putting oneself in the intense discomfort of confronting the limitations of one’s own thinking, and staying there until a new kind of thinking emerges.  The kind of thinking only available to those willing to put all that they are and all that they know up for question in service of having the promise they have made reinvent them into what the promise needs for its realization.  

Few people in history have actually done this, and it is only as a function of those people and the stands they have taken that history has been made.

It takes a kind of presence in the world to be the one to take the lead, to step out and say “This shall be”.  For example, not everyone could have taken the lead to put a man on the moon.  But President Kennedy could, and he did.  He did this by making this promise, by taking this stand:

  “First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving 
       the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the                               moon and returning him safely to the Earth.”

Take note of the specificity - a specific outcome within a specific time-frame, that calls for specific action.  Zero wiggle-room.  That's a real promise.

Kennedy had the kind of global presence, the kind of stature and audience that when he spoke, the world listened.  And he had the ability to assemble the kinds of forces to move his promise from what he was standing for to what he could be accountable for accomplishing.  Not that he would personally accomplish it, but that he would marshal the necessary resources to make it happen.  

This promise, the promise to end global warming, needs a person of that stature, an organization of that magnitude in the world, to be the one to give it voice. 

Who, then?  Who will be the one to take the lead in promising the end of global warming?  Who will step up and be that game-changer?  Who will start that ball rolling in a way that calls for others to partner in that boldness of vision and action?  Who will be the one to take that stand - a stand so clear, so powerful, and so loud as to pierce the noise and take root in the global consciousness?  

A stand that plants that initial and critical stake that begins to shift the context in which we think and act in the matter of the greatest crisis of our time from one of being studied, worked on and debated to one of being ended.  Who has the courage, the vision and the firepower to get that ball rolling?

The response to that question is the response on which our future depends.     

Bonn Climate Change Conference/COP 21 - What Is Missing

by Laughlin Artz

I am a relative newcomer to the climate change situation, especially the policy process.  I am, however, a veteran of over thirty years in both the public and private sectors (often involving multi-cultural participation) in the disciplines of strategic planning, project management and transformational leadership, i.e the science of achieving outcomes that are from the current perspective, not possible.

What got me into this initiative was the realization, through colleagues who are deeply engaged in the matter of climate change, that the predictable future of this situation was not one of a sustainable future for our world.  I then went about the clumsy business of immersing myself in the world of climate change.  That path, which I began approximately 18 months ago, has brought me here, to the Bonn Climate Change Conference. 

First, let me say that I have the utmost respect and admiration for the people who have worked tirelessly in the matter of solving this tremendously difficult, massive and complex problem.  I offer my observations, not in any way to criticize or negate any of the enormous contributions made to date on this issue, but rather as what I propose as missing in the matter of the actions that will mitigate this crisis in the requisite time-frame.

In this conference, my perspective is a unique one.  I am focused less on the technical aspects of the conversations, i.e. the graphs, charts, studies, etc.(which is appropriate given that I am far from an expert in such matters), and more on the nature of the language in which the conference itself is happening.  The language creates the environment, and the environment determines what can and cannot be accomplished. Which brings us to what I invite you to consider as the heart of the matter.  

This conference is not the environment of having the unpredictable happen.

This, I assert, is the fundamental dilemma, given that what is clearly being called for is something distinct from the tried and true, or as it is termed in the language of the conference, “business as usual.”  So I find myself immersed in a global convening of the finest experts in the field, with much talk of how much we need something other than business as usual, and at the same time those same people propagating that exact environment.  Something other than business as usual simply cannot be accomplished in a business as usual environment. 

There are three points on which the majority of parties here are clearly in agreement .  One, that what is needed for us as a species is for us to keep the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.  Second, that our current rate of progress is insufficient to accomplish this.  And third, that an agreement that includes a commitment to achieving that result will not happen at COP 21.  That is the current state of affairs.

So what is the environment of the Bonn Climate Change Conference?

The environment of the Bonn conference is one of study, data, debate and negotiation, and not one of action, specifically not one of bold action, the kind of action called for in this situation.  And there is a design to that.  The bulk of people here are scientists, scholars, diplomats and politicianians.  These are fields in which action and what it takes to make something happen, especially something unpredictable, is simply not part of the skill set.  And I am not saying it should be, only to illuminate that people, whatever their profession, are trained in particular competencies that are a match for what has been determined is most necessary to be effective in that field.

Scientists are designed to study and assess, and you hear it consistently in the closing remarks (next steps) of these meetings that the next step is to conduct another study, to compile more data, to do more or deeper research.  All of which has its place in the world, absolutely a vital place, and an extremely vital place in the matter of climate change; it's just not the appropriate realm of endeavor when you are out to make something happen.  Information makes something understandable, makes something clear, but does nothing to generate action. 

Politicians and diplomats are well versed in the matters of compromise, negotiation, and building cases for their own constituencies’ interests, all of which are essential in many of the situations in which they find themselves.  However, none of that expertise is what is needed when unpredictable actions are required to accomplish unpredictable outcomes.

We have a situation where what is needed is not in the current capacities of the accountable parties.  There is nothing wrong about that, merely the current state of where we are in the matter.

What is missing?

For us to generate a global commitment at COP 21 in Paris in December to take the actions necessary to ensure a future of sustainability for us all will require a shift in the context in which the work is being conducted.  This is June 4, COP 21 concludes December 11, so we have about 6 months to make that happen.

The charge for us, for you and me, I would suggest, is to bring the work of producing unpredictable outcomes, for interrupting the predictable future, to this process. As a global citizen, as a member of civil society, this is the charge i have given myself.  This is why I am here.  

Fundamentally what is missing is working from a future rather than the past.  The current condition is one that calls for seeing the future from what is known and attempting to project into the future from there.  This will only give us some version of what has been, some prediction, and even if what we get is a better version of what and where we have been, it will still be insufficient.  It is a function of seeing the future in this past-based framework that has the delegates saying that what we need to accomplish in Paris will not happen.  And they are accurate.  The future we want will not come from the past.

What is missing in this conference isn't data, it isn't consensus, it isn't even more time;  what is missing is an environment generated by a stand, an existential promise for a future unforeseen.  An environment born of a stand of something being possible, rather than predictable.  This is counter-intuitive to the mindset of many of the conference participants who have been highly trained in the disciplines of assessing, studying, proving and validating.  

You cannot get to a stand from what is known or proven.  In fact, that negates the whole point of a stand.  A stand comes from the stand itself.  The design of a stand is to bring into existence a whole new environment, and with that, new ways of thinking, acting and being that are necessary to fulfill the stand.  We are at a critical crossroads as a species.  We don’t need different actions in the same environment; we need a completely new environment in which to act. That is the power of a stand.

My stand is that a global agreement to take the actions necessary to ensure a sustainable future is possible, an agreement that includes something of the order of "full decarbonization by 2050", and that it is possible to achieve this by the completion of COP21 on December 11.  That stand is what brought me to Bonn. 

The charge now, my charge, your charge, civil society's charge is to infuse our stand for COP 21 success into the policy process, and to invite others to take that stand, and in so doing, to empower these incredibly dedicated people to see that what they want is actually possible and that they and others can actually have that.  

It will not come easy.  It will take on all of our parts the risk of taking that stand.   This stand and its corresponding new ways of thinking and acting will not come cheaply.  It will cost us what we know to be true, all that is there in the current environment that tells us what is and isn't possible.  It will require us to be who we haven't been before, to reinvent ourselves as what is wanted and needed for the realization of that stand. 

What does that look like?  I don't know.  You can't predict it, you can only discover it for yourself. For me, it looks like being at the Bonn Climate Change Conference.  For you, it will be your unique expression.  That is part of the adventure that it is to step beyond the current reality into the unknown.

This is an exciting time, this is an extraordinary opportunity for us all to join in the process of working toward and ensuring the success of COP 21 this December.  It is possible!

Bonn Climate Conference - Day 1

The Bonn Climate Conference opened yesterday.  Opening remarks and welcomes from parties from around the world.  The speaking was the kind of speaking that was non-specific, designed to evoke emotional responses, rather than action.  It was speaking in the language of generalization, concept and platitude.  It was the speaking of hope, good intentions and ideals.  

And then someone spoke that broke the rhythm.  The representative from Angola said that the work being done was insufficient and that it was time to make a change.  That the 2 degree limit generally accepted as the danger point past which we should work to avoid was far to high, and that it was time to get serious about what it was going to take to keep the temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial level.  The language of her speech was specific and action-oriented.  

When she was done talking, you could feel the shift in the environment of the meeting, and for a brief moment, something was different.  Then the next delegate spoke, the same kind of speaking as before and the meeting went back to hope and well wishes. But everyone had experienced that distinct moment when Angola spoke.

The Real Climate Crisis - A Climate of Hope and Optimism

I attended 350.org's Countdown to Paris meeting tonight in NYC.  The communication was clear - The pledges that will predictably be made at the COP21 climate conference this December in Paris will fall far short of being sufficient to mitigate the crisis in time.  And in the face of no strategy or plan to effectively deal with the predictable failure, the panel of experts expressed their optimism. Optimism is the heroin of the powerless.

Great progress has been made in the matter of climate change as a result of previous global climate conferences.  However, the kind of alignment and commitment now called for among all nations is unprecedented, and the consequences of a failed Paris conference are much more dire.  This is our last shot.  We have five years in which to take the actions that will make or break our planet as a sustainable environment.  Not fifty. Not a hundred. Five. 

At a time in our history when speaking and action should be at its boldest, it is actually moving in the opposite direction.  In an attempt to get the countries of the world to participate in the conference and the pledging process, the language has been so watered down that the countries aren't making promises or even commitments, but rather "intended nationally determined contributions".  In making the pledging process more comfortable, they have also eliminated the need to do the real work of confronting the cold hard reality of where we are headed and what it will take to resolve the situation in time. 

So rather than working from a future of what is wanted and needed REALLY to effectively deal with the REAL situation, we are working from a past of what is considered possible, with hope as the antidote to confronting what it will take to bridge the chasm between the actions being taken and what the crisis ACTUALLY calls for.  

What is needed is not best efforts or contributions or good intentions or optimism or even progress, but A REAL PROMISE. For someone in the crowd to stand up and say "I promise a future of sustainability.  I promise to ensure that the temperature of our planet will not exceed the agreed point of no return of 2 degrees C. I promise that the nations of the world will make that collective promise at COP21 in December." We should not count on politicians or scientists to make that promise.  If it is to come, it will come from you. And me. 

This is our time. This is our planet. This is our future. This is our promise to make.

Laughlin Artz
March 19, 2015

Stay Tuned - 350.org's Countdown to Paris

Tomorrow we will be covering the New York meeting of 350.org's Countdown to Paris.  Clock is ticking!

Letter from America to Iran

WHAT SUCCESS IN PARIS LOOKS LIKE

The critical registers for success of the upcoming Climate Change Conference in Paris have now been articulated.  If these outcomes are achieved, we as a global citizenry will have a viable shot at resolving the situation.  

This is key, both in the matter of the focus it can potentially bring to the conference itself, and for the opportunity this brings to the ordinary citizen to influence the success of the conference, both prior and during.

These outcomes are:
1.  An all-country commitment to full de-carbonization by 2050
2.  A global alignment on mobilizing carbon pricing as the means to full de-carbonization

3.  The establishment of a network of civil society partners accountable for ensuring that the commitments are realized 

This is extraordinary in the opportunity it opens up for direct citizen engagement in this process and in our future.  

Our job now is to reach the citizenry of the world, to let them know what success in Paris looks like, and to offer everyone everywhere the opportunity for their voices to be heard and to have their voices count.

The Right Crisis

The real crisis is not the crisis of climate change.  That crisis is already happening.  The crisis is the crisis that is screaming to be created and at present does not exist.  That crisis is the crisis that will come into existence only once we have promised to effectively mitigate the existing crisis, i.e. to ensure that the global temperature increase will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius.  This new crisis will be fomented by planting firmly in our future the promise of limiting the temperature increase to 2 degrees and working back from that future, rather than the current strategy of working from the past.

What is missing is the promise to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees.  Absent that promise, the crisis that is wanted and needed will remain un-fomented, and with that, the tremendous and critical opportunities afforded by that crisis.

MLK

I wanted to write this, to let you know that I had a real breakthrough.  In the midst of working on the next episode of Context News, I happened to see on some random tv station an interview between Robert Penn and Martin Luther King, Jr., one i never heard and didn't even know existed.  Not the usual kind of speech, not a speech at all, but just a conversation.  

Toward the end of the interview, MLK talked on the specific kind of revolution that the civil right movement was/is, what it was really all about, and i heard it in a way that i had never heard it before, anywhere, from anyone.  it was very clear to me that it was very clear to him that it was about one thing and one thing only - Integrity.

I found the interview and excerpts from it, and interestingly none of them included the phrases i found most critical.  So i did the transcription myself, and will find a way to house those statements firmly at the heart of what we are doing.  Those statements and others which speak of the same kind of new language, the kind of new language that was the language Martin Luther King, Jr. lived and died for - yes, a new language of racial equality, but at the heart of it much bigger, much broader, much more revolutionary - the language of integrity.

The new language that we are creating Context News in service of, that our shows will be in service of, that all that we do will be in service of is the language of integrity.

This gives us a very clear access into the world we are out to change and also a way of speaking about what we are up to that makes it gettable, at least enough to get us in the door.

This might all seem obvious to you, and maybe i am just a bit slow to get it, but this discovery of what this all really is has opened up for me a whole new world of what is now there to create and manifest.

Thank you!!!

Love,

Laughlin